The Myth of Proof

"Can you prove it?"

This is more than proof that you're dealing with a pragmatist. It is also a convenient way of avoiding the need to change and demonstrates a misunderstanding of change.

If something is truly innovative - if it represents a significant change - it simply can't be proven in advance. No examples substitute for a theory and no proof can be generated until after you've actually attempted the change.

And this cuts both ways. "Proof" that something works in the past is really no guarantee that it will work in the future. Phonograph records sold rather well for decades. As the mutual fund ads say, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Perhaps the worst kind of success is success that isn't well understood but can be "proven" with data. It is one thing - and a wonderful thing - to have success. It is quite another thing to be able to repeat it.

You will never have proof that something will work in the future. As Deming continually said, "management is prediction." Although you can never have proof, you should have a theory of knowledge, a set of testable predictions that you regularly test and update. It is a theory of knowledge (one of Deming's four elements of profound knowledge) that is perhaps the most important bridge out of the world of management myth.