The Myth of Proof

Stephen Covey was fond of using the lighthouse as something that symbolizes guiding principles. I prefer to think of it as something that symbolizes a state of transition.

A lighthouse is a warning for a boat. Its message is simple - you are entering a point of transition and what you've been able to do up to this point will no longer work. Save for a few amphibious crafts, most vehicles are designed for either water or land - to try the transition from one state to the other, from water to land without a change from boat to car is to court destruction.

Right now, your business has proof of what works and what does not. That's fine and reliable as long as the context, the state, in which you work does not change. But once that happens - once the demographic of your customer changes, the competition introduces new solutions, the market transitions from national to international ... when you see such a change, you are seeing a lighthouse. The proof you have about what works in the water may prove irrelevant once you find yourself on land. Motor boats and sail boats alike move poorly on land.

Don't become complacent about proof. We're entering the end of the information age. The point is no longer to disperse more information to knowledge workers. The point is to disperse more decisions, more market signals, more autonomy, to knowledge workers. It is unlikely that you have much proof about what works in such a context. And reliance on past proof will only confuse you.

What should you do? Start generating theories. Test them in small and rapid experiments. Proof is valuable, but to get proof about what works in a new context you have to approach the situation with an open mind about what works and what does not. Proof is like yogurt - it is never entirely clear when it has gone bad with age, but it does go eventually go bad. Be sure that your proof is fresh.